What’s the long-term projection at quarterback?

Aidan O’Connell under contract for next two seasons; rookie Cam Miller is a developmental pick for Las Vegas

With Geno Smith on board, the Las Vegas Raiders are set for the short term at the all-important quarterback position.

The 34-year-old reunites with head coach Pete Carroll in the desert after the Silver & Black sent a 2025 third-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks back in early March. A month later, Las Vegas inked Smith to a two-year, $75 million contract extension that ties the signal caller to the franchise through the 2027 season.

And after four season together (2020-23), both the bond and familiarity between the Raiders’ new QB1 and head honcho are as strong as ever.

Thus, Smith is the clear-cut starter for Carroll’s Raiders — a coach who inked a three-year pact with the team with an option for a fourth year. Were Smith and Carroll to ride through their current deals, after three seasons, the quarterback will be nearly 37 and the coach nearly 76.

By The Numbers
Geno Smith, Quarterback

• 2024: 17 games (17 starts), 407 of 578 (70.4 percent completion rate), 4,320 yards, 21 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 50 sacks absorbed, 9 fumbles; 53 carries, 272 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Career: (2013-2024) 94 games (83 starts), 1,721 of 2,655 (64.8 percent completion rate), 19,143 yards, 105 touchdowns, 72 interceptions, 222 sacks absorbed, 44 fumbles; 316 carries, 1,494 yards, 12 touchdowns

But what about the long-term projection of the vital position?

That’s where it gets interesting.

The Room

The current makeup of Las Vegas quarterback room sees Smith atop the depth chart as the unquestioned starting quarterback this coming season. Aidan O’Connell, who enters his third season with the team after being drafted in the fourth round (135th overall) in the 2023 NFL Draft, is slated to be the backup while undrafted free agent Carter Bradley and 2025 sixth-round pick (215th overall) Cam Miller are set to duke it out for QB3/emergency signal caller role.

O’Connell turns 27 on September 1 while Bradley is 25 and Miller recently turned 24. So it’s a relatively young quarterback room in Las Vegas and only Smith and O’Connell have experienced the rigors of the NFL games. Smith has 94 total games under his belt (83 starts and a 40-43-40 win-loss record as a signal caller) in 11 seasons, while O’Connell has 20 career games on his resume (17 starts, and a 7-10-0 win-loss mark) in two seasons.

Like many other incumbent Raiders, O’Connell is in dire need of stability in the coaching staff and front office. He’s had a new head coach and play caller in his first two seasons in the NFL and being a beneficiary of a sustained regime can do him and other Raiders good.

Contract-wise, Bradley has the shortest pact as he’s slated to become an exclusive-rights free agent at the end of this coming season. O’Connell is under contract for two more years under his rookie deal and hits unrestricted free agency in 2027.

We’ve discussed Smith above — he hits unrestricted free agency in 2028 if he and the Raiders see his three-year contract through. Miller is the one with the longest contract ties as his four-year rookie contract has him hitting unrestricted free agency in 2029.

Going back to Smith, there’s a potential out for Las Vegas after the 2026 season as the quarterback carries no dead money on his $39.5 million cap number for the 2027 season. Thus the Raiders could axe him and receive no dead money while saving $39.5 million.

Inherent Differences

While Smith and O’Connell are of similar height — both are 6-foot-3 — the former is exponentially more mobile than the latter. While he isn’t a big-time scrambling threat, Smith’s ability to escape and evade in the pocket and make defenses pay for not respecting his mobility were ever-present as a starter in Seattle.

O’Connell, meanwhile, isn’t a sloth as he can move in the pocket, but he’s not the type to gallop 34-yards for a touchdown against a stout defense like Smith did. Hence why I dubbed O’Connell Cement Shoes.

Where the two quarterbacks are similar, however, is quick release and accuracy. According to Pro Football Reference, Smith is an on-target thrower with an 81.8 percentage in 2024 and a 78.5 percent mark over the last six seasons. O’Connell, meanwhile, was charted with a 72.8 and 71.2 percent on-target mark the past two years.

It’s difficult to discern Bradley’s capabilities as he hasn’t seen action against first-team NFL defenses being a practice squad mainstay for the majority of his rookie season in 2024. The same can be said about Miller.

Both are long-term developmental types with Bradley being the taller one at 6-foot-3 and 216 pounds while Miller stands 6-foot-1 and 212 pounds.

Knock Miller coming from FCS North Dakota State all you want, yet it’s difficult to ignore he was productive four-year starter and winner (45-11 record) that led the Bison to two NCAA Division I FCS national championships and a 15-3 playoff record.

Miller is quick through is progressions and releasing the ball and he’s able to feather throws at all three levels for accuracy and touch. He also brings mobility as a scrambler to make defenses pay for not respecting that part of his game.

But like Bradley, Miller doesn’t have the big-time arm talent that brings both velocity and power to go deep or thread the needle consistently.

Future State

Unless there’s significant drop off or injury, expect Smith to be the clear-cut starter the next two season and a third highly likely. That 39.5 million camp number in 2027 isn’t exorbitant and his $26.6 million figure in 2026 doesn’t preclude Las Vegas from either drafting another signal caller or inking a free-agent option.

O’Connell appears destined to be a reliable backup as QB2. Unless he can legitimately push Smith, he either re-ups with the Raiders when his contract is up or signs with another team. Bradley just may be another practice squad candidate while Miller earns the QB3 role based on his collegiate exploits and upside as a late-round pick in the most recent draft.

Horizon-wise, the Raiders are in good fiscal shape as the team is likely going to be in the Top 5 in cap space available next offseason and in the Top 10 in 2027.