Earlier this month, Pro Football Focus ranked Raiders WR Davante Adams as the top receiver in the NFL going into the 2023 season. And it’s not hard to understand why. Adams is coming off one of the best seasons of his career despite not playing with Aaron Rodgers.
But going into the 2023 season, is there a chance that we could see a major drop in production for Adams? The former Packers receiver racked up 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2022 as he was named a first-team All-Pro selection. But there are some concerns that his production could take a hit this year in Las Vegas.
In a recent article by Pro Football Focus, they took a look at a few bets you should consider making before the 2023 season kicks off. One bet that they recommended taking was Adams under 1,325.5 receiving yards as they believe he could see a huge decrease in production:
Some of the underlying data shows that perhaps Adams is on the decline as he enters his 30s. His separation numbers have been trending down for a few years, and his yards per route run average just declined for a second straight season.
But this bet is as much about the context in Vegas as it is about Adams and the inevitable decline as he ages. The star wideout spent most of last year as the lone healthy target, but this year the team has Hunter Renfrow at full health, and they also signed Jakobi Meyers — who has commanded a 25% target share during his career — to a huge deal this offseason
On paper, Adams doesn’t appear to be a great fit with QB Jimmy Garoppolo as he doesn’t push the ball down the field very often. Instead, Garoppolo excels on play-action passes over the middle of the field. Needless to say, it’s going to take some time for the two to develop some chemistry.
Will Adams have another 1,500-yard season in Las Vegas? Probably not. But that doesn’t mean he can’t post another All-Pro performance. Betting the under is the safe bet here. But don’t count on Adams declining as a player very much in 2023.