Returning Raider Nation’s questions for the week
The smell of fresh-cut grass is filling the airways in Costa Mesa, Calif. as the Las Vegas Raiders begin training camp on Sunday, the 21st. Granted, the Raiders won’t hit the field just yet as rookies will report first to get a few more mental reps with the playbook and the veterans will join them on Tuesday.
So, we’re hitting our last pre-training camp mailbag as the 2024 season is about to get underway!
Q: How big of a jump can Aidan O’Connell realistically take?
A: I wouldn’t expect O’Connell to become an All-Pro or Pro Bowler (and I mean a legit Pro Bowler, not one that makes it because 10 other guys drop out), but he can become a good game manager this season. I think the ceiling is he plays similarly to the 2022 version of Brock Purdy as someone who takes care of the football, operates the system well and makes good decisions but isn’t necessarily a game-changer.
A: I’m more confident in O’Connell than Gardner Minshew, but I do have some skepticism about O’Connell. The best way I can describe my confidence level is cautiously optimistic where I think he can become a decent starting quarterback in the NFL, but I’m not rushing to bet my life savings on that.
If neither Minshew nor O’Connell are getting it done this season, a trade likely won’t happen until the offseason. If there is a quarterback who is worth giving up assets for in the middle of the year, his team probably isn’t going to get rid of him.
Q: At this point, how would you rate the quality of the Raiders roster against the other AFC West teams? Is it safe to assume the Raiders fall directly behind Kansas City or farther down the line?
A: The Raiders’ roster as a whole could be second in the division behind the Chiefs, but Las Vegas is closer to Denver and Los Angeles than it is to Kansas City. In fact, FTN’s Football Almanac touched on this subject and I’d agree with what it said below.
“The quarterback situation is an obvious holding pattern. The best thing that can be said about the Raiders roster is that it is no worse than the Broncos or Chargers rosters. The Raiders could easily finish in second place in the AFC West, but the same was possible for the team under Gruden and McDaniels.”
Q: How many positions did the Raiders actually upgrade with new starters this year versus how many starters left the team? Has the Raiders roster overall really been upgraded since last year? With that said will we really have a better than .500 record?
A: Upgrades (5): Jackson Powers-Johnson over Greg Van Roten, Tre Tucker over Hunter Renfrow, Christian Wilkins over Jerry Tillery/Bilal Nichols, Brock Bowers over Austin Hooper, Minshew/O’Connell over Jimmy Garoppolo.
Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images
I’ll touch on JPJ below. Technically, Tucker isn’t a “new” starter since he ended up taking Renfrow’s spot toward the end of last year, but if we’re going off Week 1 then obviously the second-year pro gets the nod as Renfrow hasn’t even been picked up by another team yet. Wilkins over the other two defensive tackles needs no explanation, same with Bowers and Hooper. I will say that I was more optimistic about Garoppolo when he was signed and the information about his foot injury wasn’t public, but he played so terribly after the injury that either of the two quarterback options would be an upgrade if we’re judging off last season.
Downgrades (4): Josh Jacobs over Zamir White, Jermaine Eluemunor over Thayer Munford Jr., both outside cornerback spots.
All of these are just a matter of swapping out proven commodities for younger players who don’t have much experience. So, these downgrades could end up becoming a wash or upgrades by the end of the year, I’m just looking at it as heading into the season. Granted, the cornerback spots could be controversial. While Jakorian Bennett was a Week 1 starter last year, that lasted four games and Amik Roberston was better last season. Marcus Peters’ tenure with the Raiders ended in turmoil, it’s just the sample size for Jack Jones is too small for me to comfortably say he’s an upgrade. Again, that could change by the end of the year.
For your second question, I think Las Vegas will float around the .500 mark (I went into more details in last week’s mailbag). FTN’s Almanac has the Silver and Black’s projected wins at 7.1 and a 48 percent chance to land in the ‘mediocrity’ range (six to eight wins) with a 22.0 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Q: Convince me that Jackson Powers-Johnson was enough of an upgrade to the offensive line that I should no longer be concerned.
A: Obviously, there’s a level of uncertainty with any rookie that leads to concerns, but Powers-Johnson was one of, if not the best interior offensive linemen in this year’s draft class and should have been a late first-round pick, in my opinion. I dove into his game via the Film Room column below if you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic about him or just want to see some bone-crushing blocks.
While Van Roten had a good year in 2023, it was also the best season of his career and there aren’t many 33-year-old offensive linemen who continue to ascend. There’s a reason why another team hasn’t picked him up in free agency and, in my opinion, GVR’s 2024 performance was nothing special that couldn’t be upgraded on.
Q: Is this the most underwhelming RB core to ever play in the AFC West?
A: It’s definitely a pretty underwhelming group as no one in it has a 1,000-rushing-yard season on their résumé. Also, the Raiders and Chargers will have new starters this season, and Javonte Williams is coming off a career-low 3.6 yards per carry. I don’t know if it’s the worst in the division’s history, but it has to be up there for sure, heading into the season at least.
Q: If Luke Getsy is retained next year and I know it’s early, any ideas on potential QB draft targets in terms of Getsy preferences?
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images
A: We’re getting a little ahead of ourselves here and I’ll say let’s give O’Connell a chance. But if you’re looking for a quarterback to keep tabs on during the College Football season, I’d pay close attention to Georgia’s Carson Beck. He’s my top quarterback heading into the campaign and has a strong arm to execute Getsy’s vertical passing game. Plus, it would help that Beck already has some chemistry with Brock Bowers.
Q: How does a Patrick Graham defense look in its 3rd year on his stops so far? Hoping for at minimum them to be a top 15ish unit?
A: This will be the first time Graham has been a defensive coordinator for the third year in a row with the same team. He was the DC in Miami in 2019 and then New York in 2020 and 2021 before heading to Las Vegas. So, he doesn’t have a track record to work off for that.
A: The only way I see Davante Adams getting traded is if the Raiders stumble out of the gates and the outlook for the rest of the season is looking bleak, meaning they won’t be close to being a playoff contender. Then, especially if the Jets are playing well and in contention, I could see Adams asking for a trade and the Raiders obliging to get some assets for the future. Until then, he ain’t going nowhere!
A: I think part of it was they had Zamir White run a lot more inside or downhill run concepts where he could just hit the hole and go. But, to be honest, I wish I had a better explanation for his emergence at the end of last season.
It’s one of those things where some guys just need more time to get a feel for the NFL and then they hit the ground running seemingly out of nowhere. More than anything, it’s a credit to White for staying mentally resilient and sticking with it despite not having early success. That’s a lot easier said than done, especially for professional athletes who aren’t used to failure.
A: Please, for the sake of Raider Nation’s hearing, keep her away from Allegiant Stadium! LOL.
That’ll do it for this week’s mailbag. Thank you all for submitting questions and, as your weekly reminder, if you’d like to have your questions answered in a future column, tweet them at me, @MHolder95, email them to SBPQuestions1@gmail.com or look for our weekly call for questions on the site. The latter will continue to publish on Thursdays.