Las Vegas Raiders’ 2026 Super Bowl Odds: A Long Road Back to Glory

The Las Vegas Raiders enter the 2025-26 NFL season as significant underdogs in the race for the Super Bowl. Sportsbooks list the Raiders at +12,000 to win it all, ranking them 25th in the league. These long odds give them a 0.8% chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, according to the bookmakers at Casino Vegasino.

Contrasting Championship Eras: 1981, 1984, and 2002

It’s instructive to look back at the franchise’s last championship-caliber teams to understand how far the Raiders must climb. The Raiders’ previous Super Bowl victories came following the 1980 and 1983 seasons, with the 1981 and 1984 teams representing the tail end of that golden era. The 2002 squad was the last to reach the Super Bowl, falling to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The 1981 Oakland Raiders, fresh off a Super Bowl XV win, stumbled to a 7-9 record, missing the playoffs for the first time in 16 years. The team’s passing game collapsed, finishing 26th in the league with 28 interceptions, and the defense, which had led the NFL in takeaways the year before, plummeted to last with a minus-16 turnover differential. This was a team in transition, with aging stars and a roster that could not sustain the previous year’s magic.

In 1984, the Los Angeles Raiders, now the team, bounced back to an 11-5 record, boasting a high-powered offense that racked up 5,484 total yards. The defense was also stout, allowing just 4,895 yards and forcing 34 turnovers. However, despite their regular season success, the Raiders were upset in the Wild Card round by the Seattle Seahawks, losing 13-7. The 1984 team was still anchored by Hall of Fame talent and guided by Tom Flores, one of the NFL’s most respected coaches.

Fast forward to 2002, and the Raiders, led by MVP quarterback Rich Gannon and Hall of Fame receivers Tim Brown and Jerry Rice, finished 11-5 and won the AFC Championship. That roster blended veteran leadership and offensive innovation, with Charlie Garner and Tyrone Wheatley in the backfield and a defense featuring playmakers like Rod Woodson and Charles Woodson. The 2002 team was built for a modern, pass-heavy NFL and had the experience and cohesion to reach the Super Bowl.

The Current Roster: A Work in Progress

The 2025 Raiders are a team in flux, coming off a 4-13 season in which they ranked 28th in scoring offense (18.2 points per game) and 25th in points allowed (25.5 per game). They lost all six divisional games and managed just two wins at home and on the road. Last season, the offense averaged 363.8 yards per game, with a modest 95.1 rushing yards per contest and a 7.3 yards-per-attempt passing average. The defense, meanwhile, surrendered 337.2 yards per game and was particularly vulnerable against the run, giving up 114.3 rushing yards per game and 18 rushing touchdowns over the season.

Significant changes are expected entering 2025. The Raiders traded for quarterback Geno Smith, who reunites with new head coach Pete Carroll after their successful stint in Seattle. The offense is expected to get a boost from first-round pick Brock Bowers, a dynamic tight end, and running back Ashton Jeanty, both of whom are expected to be immediate contributors. On defense, adding veteran safety Jeremy Chinn brings leadership and versatility to a unit that struggled with consistency last year.

Maxx Crosby remains the cornerstone of the defense, coming off another Pro Bowl season as one of the league’s premier edge rushers. However, the roster lacks the depth and star power of the Raiders’ championship teams of the past, and many young players and recent acquisitions will need to step up for the team to contend.

The Pete Carroll Factor: A Proven Winner

The most significant change for the Raiders is the arrival of Pete Carroll as head coach. Carroll, one of only three coaches to win a college national championship and a Super Bowl, brings a wealth of experience and a proven track record of turning around struggling franchises. Over 18 seasons as an NFL head coach, Carroll has posted a 170-120-1 record, including a Super Bowl win with the Seattle Seahawks and 13 winning seasons. His teams are known for their energy, discipline, and defensive excellence, particularly during Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” era, when the Seahawks led the league in scoring defense for four consecutive years.

Carroll’s impact is already being felt in Las Vegas. Reports from OTAs highlight his infectious energy and the immediate culture shift he has brought to the team. He is joined by new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, whose innovative schemes helped Ohio State win a national championship last year. The pairing of Carroll and Kelly is designed to modernize the Raiders’ offense and maximize the talents of Smith, Bowers, and Jeanty.

Can the Raiders Change Their Fortunes?

Despite the long odds, there is a sense of optimism around the Raiders for the first time in years. Carroll’s history suggests he can engineer quick turnarounds: he took a 7-9 Seahawks team to a division title and playoff win in his first season in Seattle, and he rebuilt USC into a college football powerhouse in just two years. The Raiders’ front office, led by new general manager John Spytek, is also being praised for a strong draft class and a renewed focus on building through youth and smart acquisitions.

The path to contention remains steep. While improved, the AFC West features elite coaches and quarterbacks, and the Raiders’ roster still lacks the depth and proven talent of the league’s top teams. The offense must find consistency, and the defense must improve against both the run and the pass. If Geno Smith can recapture his Seattle form and the young core develops quickly, the Raiders could emerge as a playoff dark horse, but a Super Bowl run in 2026 remains a long shot based on current projections.

Looking Ahead: The Road to Relevance

The 2025-26 Las Vegas Raiders are a franchise in transition, with a legendary coach at the helm and a roster blending youth and experience. While their odds to win the Super Bowl are among the league’s longest, the arrival of Pete Carroll and a wave of new talent have injected hope into Raider Nation. The journey back to championship glory will require patience, development, and a bit of Carroll’s trademark magic—but for the first time in years, the Silver and Black have a clear direction and a leader with a proven blueprint for success. The challenge is steep, but the foundation for a new era is finally laid in Las Vegas.