Despite the NFL becoming a more pass-happy league, it hasn’t become any easier for rookie wide receivers to have success early in their careers. Since 2015, only one first-round pick at wide receiver has surpassed 1,000 yards in their rookie season; Amari Cooper.
While Cooper is the outlier, it’s becoming more and more apparent that rookie receivers just don’t have big impacts in their rookie seasons. Over the last five drafts, first-round picks at receiver average just 391 receiving yards and 2.3 touchdowns.
But despite the recent track-record of first-round picks at receiver, optimism surrounding Henry Ruggs III is at an all-time high. In a recent piece by ESPN, Paul Gutierrez predicted that the No. 12 pick for the Raiders would surpass five receiving touchdowns as a rookie:
Think of it this way — Ruggs caught four slant passes for Alabama last fall and three of them went for touchdowns as he averaged 31.8 yards per catch on those plays. And slants are a hallmark of Raiders coach Jon Gruden’s offense. As a group, Raiders WRs had just 12 TD catches last season, with Tyrell Williams (6) and Hunter Renfrow (4) combining for 10. Expect Ruggs to get his scoring chances.
Unlike most rookie receivers, Ruggs won’t need a ton of targets to be effective for the Raiders. His speed and quickness will allow him to turn short passes (like slants) into long gains as Gutierrez mentioned. However, Ruggs scoring six or more touchdowns in 2020 does seem a little bit unrealistic. But given his talent, it is not out of the realm of possibilities.
Look for Ruggs’ role to grow in the offense as the season goes along. And if he can score more than five touchdowns as a rookie, look for him to receive some Offensive Rookie of the Year votes.
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