Today we bring you a check in on Western Conference with a journey to the desert. Who was a previous Toronto Maple Leaf superstar, what Marner will give us in 2025-26 for the Golden Knights, it’s really quite the anomaly. However, players love players, he got paid, and he’s about to light the lamp. His new teammates are very excited for his arrival. Yes, the idea behind Mitch Marner‘s point projection for 2025-26 is a brilliant idea. Are you taking the over, or the under?
The Point Projection for Mitch Marner‘s Over-Under is Set at 95
Get it. This is Mitch Marner. He buries biscuits, especially when it comes to regular season play. That is our focus here after all. His work on the penalty kill isn’t even enough to slow him down offensively, he still has plenty left in the tank. It’s possible he will get a break from his extensive penalty kill assignments, compared to his time with the Leafs, on a deep Vegas forward group. Also, let’s not forget, one observation is that he likely has the smoothest saucer pass around this NHL saloon.
Mitch Marner has a career high of 102 points in an NHL season. He is one of the great playmakers in the sport, and when the speed of the game is what it is right now, standing out in that regard is quite the magical feat. Nobody has time and space to make plays, but somehow the talented ones do find a way to get things done. Nikita Kucherov also comes to mind.
Mitch Marner will light it up on the Vegas Golden Knights power play. It’s inevitable, it’s almost diabolical. Maybe.
It’s likely in even just 19 minutes of ice time, Marner can hit 55 assists. In his past four seasons, Marner’s average assists are 66.3, even higher if you consider an 82-game pace. That is actually around Eichel’s team high of 66 assists in 2024-25. We believe Eichel can start focusing on padding the goal column more frequently. Moreover, last year, Vegas had two guys (Pavel Dorofeyev with 35 and Tomas Hertl with 32), who had more than Eichel’s 28 tucks. Therefore, he will have options. However, we say only 55 assists, far below Marner’s recent average, as it might take some time to develop chemistry.
How Can Marner Benefit from a Strong Vegas Squad?
Vegas is a very deep team, and Marner’s addition of high-end skill will be a welcomed addition. That is a huge advantage, and it’s almost underrated as in its overall impact.
Marner has had an impressive even strength Corsi-for percent relative of 5.6 two times. It just shows the more ice time for Marner, the better. It is quite a favourable and desirable feat in today’s NHL of elite skill, as we have alluded.
Jack Eichel and Mark Stone lead to a very dynamic and efficient power play configuration. We all know how strong the connection with Auston Matthews was for Marner and the Buds franchise. But Vegas is able to attack in waves, and a more steady, sustained offensive flow, when they are buzzing.
The Power Play is Where It Is At
Vegas had a 28.3% on the power play in 2024-25, good for second overall in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Leafs were at 24.8% PP, that had them at ninth overall. Not only can Marner improve a power play, but he can also succeed with plenty of high-end skill. That means, it is likely Marner will be heightened in his 2025-26 power play point production.
The other part for Mitch Marner in his point projection, is his goal totals. He’s never really been known for his goal scoring. Overall, through nine NHL seasons, he has 221 goals. For someone known way more for their assist totals, he’s actually been incredibly consistent in his goal totals. Again, playing with the skilled Vegas forwards, don’t look for this to slip. Since his second year in the league, the six times he has played 69 or more games, he’s scored between 22 and 35 goals. His career shooting percentage is 13.3%, but hasn’t been below 15.3% the past four campaigns. Now, we do think he will be primarily a playmaker in Vegas, in particular the power play, so we won’t tend to the higher side of this range. In contrast, given his trends, referring to the higher shooter percentage, we have him between 24 and 29 goals. There’s going to be a ton of space on the Vegas power play given the overflowing riches of talent.
Time for the Final Over-Under on Mitch Marner’s Point Projection for 2025-26
Let’s break it all down, one time. We have Marner scoring between 24 and 29 tucks. So, let’s pencil that in. Then, we mentioned 55 assists, which should be a low end. Marner already plays a very strong, and reliable two-way game. So, some of the growing pains of adapting to a new team’s structure and game plan, should be manageable. That’s why we don’t see a real dip in his overall production, say based on the standard he has established in Toronto. However, if we even look at the higher end of our projections, say 30 goals and 60 assists, he still falls below the original 95 over-under. So, even though we are expecting a big season for Marner and his new team, we say take the under.
Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
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