Welcome to another Ottawa Senators edition of NHL Predictions with us here at Last Word On Hockey, for some Wednesday night hockey from the desert. The Sens put their 2-1 record from their current western road trip on the line against the Vegas Golden Knights. Check out our statistical breakdown, analysis, storylines, and predictions for not just this one, but games all season long. Will Ottawa continue their strong play, or will Vegas prove to be golden? Find out our thoughts, next.
NHL Predictions with the Senators at the Golden Knights
2024-25 Season Series – Vegas 2 – 0
Start Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: RDS2, TSN5, SCRIPPS
Location: T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada
What’s the Story in Vegas
We will start in Vegas, with a couple of injury notes, that do have bigger implications, than just this game with the Sens, what? I know, right. How is that possible you’re asking yourself. Two Team Canada hopefuls are currently injured for Vegas, Adin Hill and Mark Stone (yes, former Sens assistant captain and current Vegas captain). Stone’s timeline for a return has put his Team Canada prospects in jeopardy. He had been red hot with 13 points in six games before going down with the wrist injury. It is uncertain when exactly he returns. However, between others playing their way on the team, and perhaps Stone needing rest, there is talk that he might miss the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympic Games.
Meanwhile, for Hill, he is listed as week-to-week with a lower-body injury. The bigger problem for him, is his level of play. Will he be able to return to form, and win a spot over say, Logan Thompson? We don’t think it is looking all that good at this time.
At this time, Akira Schmid is listed as the expected starter. That is over the much less experienced backup, Carl Lindbom. He only has six career starts, and is 0-4-2. We will add our disclaimer at this time, to please check social media for the very latest lineup news and notes before locking in your daily fantasy starting roster. Schmid’s season numbers are solid. He’s 9-1-3, with a .902 save percentage and a 2.45 goals-against average, and one shutout. Ottawa doesn’t have much margin of error, when they get their chances, they better snipe.
Despite these issues for Vegas, they are still doing well at 10-5-7. That has them fourth in the NHL’s Pacific Division standings. Mitch Marner is off to another solid season, his first in Golden Knight colours. He has four goals and 17 assists for 21 points in 22 games. The surprise of the year, likely continues to be Pavel Dorofeyev. He’s fallen off his early season pace a bit, as he only has two assists in his last four games. However, he still has 11 goals in 22 games played. The takeaway for Ottawa, is to play good team defence. Vegas can come at you in waves, so everybody should be seen as a scoring threat.
What’s the Story for Ottawa
For injury notes for the Sens, there is definitely some uncertainty. Brady Tkachuk came on the road trip and said he would play around American Thanksgiving. We now know he returns for the St. Louis Blue game on Friday afternoon. Ridly Greig is day-to-day, and we aren’t exactly sure when he laces them up. However, we don’t anticipate he misses any extended period of action. Next is Thomas Chabot. He only just returned and definitely tweaked something as we saw at the end of the game versus the San Jose Sharks. It seems like he will miss a bit of time, but we don’t have a clear sense of how long exactly. If it stretches pass a week, we would probably get a better update at that time.
Therefore, the Sens do have to contend with some lineup shuffling. Nikolas Matinpalo, Stephen Halliday, and Hayden Hodgson would be the guys most impacted. That is, in case someone returns and the Sens need to sit someone.
One of the stories for the Sens, continues to be their impressive third line (if you can even call it that). The line of Shane Pinto, Claude Giroux, and Michael Amadio is the standard for what an NHL third line can be. Their expected goal percentage, out of 77 qualifying line combinations that have played more than 74 minutes, is tops. In 151.9 minutes played together, they have an xGoals% of 69.
The Matchup
The two teams are pretty even in expected goal percentage at 5v5. Ottawa is eighth at 53.1%, while Vegas is ranked next at 53%. Vegas will look for every advantage they can get, in terms of line matchups. One stat that Ottawa is tremendously good at, continues to be the faceoff percentage. Ottawa leads the league, as they have for a while at 58.6%. Unfortunately, it won’t be as big of an advantage against Vegas, as it could be against other teams. Vegas is third at 54.4%.
Even though Ottawa remains ranked poorly in some defensive stats, that doesn’t tell the whole story. In their first six games, they allowed four-or-more goals five times. In contrast, in their last 16 games, they’ve only allowed that many twice. They’ve scored that many themselves five times in that span. Linus Ullmark is their expected starter, and will look to keep the strong numbers going. His numbers are improving. Over his last five starts, he has a .915 save percentage. That’s compared against an .877 SV% overall in 2025-26.
NHL Predictions
This should be a good one. However, we think Vegas uses the home-ice advantage to their ultimate success. This game will be tight, but we think they prevail, as Ottawa is trying their best to power through their western road trip.
Prediction: Senators 2 – Golden Knights 3
Prop Bets
For the guys to find twine, we have a couple picks. Jack Eichel is putting on a show this year. Don’t look for him to slow down for the Sens. He has 10 goals and 20 assists in 22 games played, so far. Moreover, for the Sens, take Fabian Zetterlund. It is a bit risky, as he has three goals on the season, but one in each of the last two games.
Main Photo Credit: Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
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