Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Vegas Golden Knights. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.
Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to watch: ESPN+
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
2024–25 Season Series: tied 1-1
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
The Bolts (6-5-2) visit Sin City and the Vegas Golden Knights (7-2-3), looking to rebound from the 3-2 loss they suffered to the Colorado Avalanche after winning five straight. Nikita Kucherov scored his fifth of the season and Brayden Point put one in against the Avalanche, but it wasn’t enough on the road. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 31 shots in a losing effort. Vegas has a 4-1-1 record at home, and Tampa Bay has a 3-2-2 record on the road.
Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay
For the Lightning, they need to simplify the breakout. Don’t give the Knights odd-man rushes from sloppy exits. On offence, let Nikita Kucherov lead the show. Last season, he had 121 points (37 goals, 84 assists) in 78 games. He still knows what he’s doing.
On defence, Victor Hedman needs to assert himself more and anchor the blue line. His three assists in his last five games need to be an anomaly. Finally, don’t let Vegas create high-speed transition chances. Vegas’s Pavel Dorofeyev has nine goals, tied for 6th in the league. He needs bodies in his way, so the net seems like a mirage, and not as big as the Mirage hotel.
Vegas Golden Knights Outlook
The Golden Knights enter this one motivated. In 2024-25, they posted a strong (50-22-10) and are coming off a 1-0 win against Detroit. Akira Schmid made 24 saves, and Ivan Barbashev scored in the second game of a six-game homestand. The Golden Knights’ offence is speedy are dangerous, and when they’re clicking, they’re one of the top offences in the league. Add in the optional Vegas flair and this one won’t be a cakewalk for Tampa.
Keys to Victory – Vegas
It will be key to disrupt Tampa’s timing. Attack in the neutral zone and force turnovers. On offence, keep traffic in front and make life hard for Vasilevskiy by getting bodies and shots through. Jack Eichel (eight goals, 11 assists) is on a roll. Keep him buttered up. Special teams matter. If Vegas can win the power-play battle, they’ll tilt the ice.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
This one’s a heavyweight tilt. Tampa has the offensive depth and recent success in their favour. Vegas has speed, swagger, and the ability to flip a game in an instant. On balance, Vegas gets the edge, especially at home.
Prediction: Golden Knights 4, Lightning 3
Prop Bets of the Night
Over 5.5 Total Goals (-115):
With these two high-powered offences, goals should come.
Tampa to Score First (+140):
They have the speed and firepower to strike early.
NHL Predictions: Final Thoughts
This matchup has everything: elite offence, speed duels, skill vs structure, and playoff-type intensity early in the season. Tampa wants to reaffirm dominance; Vegas wants to prove they can hold at home. For fans? Buckle up. The lightning might strike, but the Knights aren’t just sightseeing.
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Main Photo: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
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