Tuesday: Both sides have officially announced the one-for-one swap.
Monday, 6:45 p.m.: PuckPedia has shared the financial breakdown of Marner’s new deal with Vegas:
- Year 1: $4MM salary, $11MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
- Year 2: $4MM salary, $10MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
- Year 3: $4MM salary, $9.75MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
- Year 4: $4MM salary, $7.25MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
- Year 5: $5MM salary, $6MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
- Year 6: $5MM salary, $6MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
- Year 7: $5MM salary, $5MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
- Year 8: $5MM salary, $5MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
4:07 p.m.: According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Vegas Golden Knights have acquired forward Mitch Marner from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Shortly thereafter, Friedman shared that Marner is expected to sign an eight-year, $96MM deal ($12MM AAV) with the Golden Knights. According to TSN’s Bob McKenzie, Nicolas Roy is the only player headed to the Maple Leafs in the reported deal, making it a one-for-one swap.
Arguably the league’s top available free agent since Artemi Panarin in 2019, the Golden Knights have assured that Marner won’t even reach unrestricted free agency. Marner will join a star-studded roster in Nevada that already includes Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Shea Theodore.
Unlike his situation in Toronto, Marner also joins a team that’s entrenched in winning. Without question, the most successful expansion team in NHL history, the Golden Knights have qualified for the postseason in seven out of their eight seasons, reaching three Western Conference Finals, two Stanley Cup Finals, and winning one Stanley Cup.
After the money is squared away, the Golden Knights should have approximately $2MM remaining in salary cap space. Defenseman Alex Pietrangelo is set to miss the entire 2025-26 season, potentially longer, providing Vegas with an added $8.8 million in flexibility. Coupled with Roy’s $3MM salary, the Golden Knights had plenty of flexibility to bring in Marner on a long-term contract. 
In Marner, Vegas will add one of the league’s premier playmakers to its already high-end offense. Since debuting for the Maple Leafs in the 2016-17 season, Marner has scored 221 goals and 741 points in 657 games, averaging 20:03 of ice time per night. Aside from his offensive capabilities, Marner is exceptional on the defensive puck, earning a +128 rating with a career 52.7% CorsiFor% at even strength and a 90.1% on-ice save percentage at even strength.
By re-signing Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith over the past two days, and adding Marner this afternoon, the Golden Knights have completely addressed their need for quality wingers before unrestricted free agency has even opened. Furthermore, with $2MM remaining in salary cap space, Vegas has some flexibility to add toward the bottom of their lineup, or to shore up their defensive core with cheaper deals.
Marner’s addition reaffirms the adage of the ’rich becoming richer’. The Golden Knights finished the 2024-25 campaign with the fifth-best goals scored average (3.34), third-best goals against average (2.61), second-best powerplay (28.34%), 13th-best shooting percentage (11.0%), ninth-best CorsiFor% (51.8%), and 11th-best in high-danger scoring chances (51.9%). Interestingly enough, despite being known for his offensive talents, Marner may help Vegas the most on the penalty kill, as they finished this past season ranked 26th with a 75.74% kill rate.
In terms of the salary cap, this deal is only likely to improve for the Golden Knights. Marner will earn 12.57% of Vegas’ available salary cap next year while watching that percentage drop to 10.57% in only two years. Considering that they’ll need a new contract for Eichel after next season, Vegas should be in good shape to retain both for the foreseeable future.
Unfortunately, Marner does carry some baggage when it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs. Like the Maple Leafs, the Golden Knights are firmly within their competitive window and have been competing for the Stanley Cup since becoming a team less than a decade ago. Although he won’t deal with a similar media landscape in Vegas, Marner will have similar expectations regarding his postseason performances.
In fairness to Marner, he’s been a quality postseason player, just not to his standard. During his time in Toronto, Marner scored 13 goals and 63 points in 70 playoff games, achieving a +9 rating. Although this would be viewed as quality production for most players, it’s a 0.22 drop-off in point-per-game average compared to his regular-season output. Now cemented in Vegas for the prime years of his career, Marner will only have so many more chances to correct the version of himself as a player when hockey becomes as important as it ever can.
Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have done well by turning nothing into something. The likelihood of Marner staying in Toronto has been known for several weeks, and the Maple Leafs have made sure to get another asset in return rather than lose him for nothing. Unlike Marner, the player they’re acquiring from the Golden Knights has considerable postseason experience. 
Over the last four years, Roy has become a valuable third-line center in Vegas. He can play all three forward positions and can move up and down the lineup, making him an extremely versatile forward.
Since becoming a full-time player for the Golden Knights in the 2021-22 season, Roy has scored 57 goals and 141 points in 284 games with a +26 rating, averaging 15:48 of ice time per game. His playoff scoring has declined, with five goals and 15 points in 40 games, but he contributed to the Golden Knights’ Stanley Cup victory in 2023. He should help create a stalwart third line in Toronto next to Max Domi and Scott Laughton.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.